Source
This report was prepared for the Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks by the Climate Risk Institute in collaboration with Dillon Consulting Limited.
Technical appendices are available here.
This document is currently only available in English. A summary of key points in French can be found here.
#Executive Summary
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are altering the earth’s climate, driving increases in global average temperatures and variability and extremes of weather. These changes are causing unprecedented impacts, transforming ecosystem structure and function, damaging infrastructure, disrupting business operations, and imposing harm to human health and wellbeing. Physical climate impacts and risks to human, natural and built systems in Ontario are driven by average annual warming temperature and extreme heat, drought, changes to intensity and frequency of precipitation and other climate variables. Avoiding or reducing the worst impacts of human-induced climate change requires action on parallel fronts: rapid and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and proactive and planned measures to adapt to current and imminent future changes. While there are adaptation efforts underway to address these impacts, the rapid pace of climate change requires large scale, accelerated action in all facets of our society and economy.
The Ontario Provincial Climate Change Impact Assessment (PCCIA) provides an overview of impacts, including risks and opportunities, that stem from a changing climate. This report presents results of the comprehensive and multi-sectoral assessment of potential climate change-related impacts that underscore the understanding of how and where climate change may affect Ontario’s economy, infrastructure, communities, public health and safety, and ecosystems, and provides the impetus for adaptation planning and resilience action across the province. The PCCIA establishes a foundation of impacts against which future assessments can be compared and provides a methodological model for future province-wide studies. Methods used in the PCCIA can also inform derivative assessments of climate change impacts at, for example, regional, watershed, sectoral scales. The PCCIA and its related products can be considered one of many sources of information to inform adaptation decisions and priorities across Ontario sectors and sub-regions.
The assessment was designed to utilize known best current practice for climate change risk assessment with methods grounded in International Standards (ISO 31000 and 14090). The assessment employed a diversity of knowledge, research and skills in areas that include climatology, thematic subject-matter, risk assessment, engagement and communications, socio-economics and geospatial expertise. The process included targeted and broad engagement and sought validation from an Impact Assessment Inter-Ministerial Advisory Committee (IAIC) and external stakeholders. There was also a dedicated initiative to engage with Indigenous organizations across Ontario. In total, more than 250 partners and subjectmatter experts were actively engaged over the course of the PCCIA.